CMBS Distress Signals
Analyze CMBS deals for signals of distress including special servicing, delinquency, balloon maturity, and other risk indicators.CMBS Distress Signals
Monitor and analyze distress signals across CMBS deals to identify potential credit concerns and assess portfolio risk exposure.
At Dealcharts.org, we track multiple indicators of distress in CMBS deals including special servicing activity, delinquency patterns, balloon maturity exposure, and valuation changes. This comprehensive view helps investors and analysts identify early warning signs and assess portfolio risk.
Distress Metrics
Key distress indicators across CMBS deals including special servicing activity, delinquency, and balloon maturity exposure.Distress Overview
Financial Impact
Distress Signals Table
Search and explore CMBS deals by distress signals. View detailed metrics and external resources.| Deal | Current Balance | Special Servicing | Delinquent | Perf Mat Balloon | Non-Perf Mat Balloon | Valuation Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GSMS 2017-GS52017 • GSMS | $951.7M | $237.3M5 loans | $44.1M2 loans | N/A0 loans | N/A0 loans | -$49.8M |
| BMARK 2018-B22018 • BMARK | $1.1B | $230.4M8 loans | $78.4M4 loans | N/A0 loans | $79.5M1 loans | -$1.5B |
| GSMS 2018-GS102018 • GSMS | $849.1M | $212.5M8 loans | $8.9M1 loans | $128.4M6 loans | $75.2M1 loans | -$204.6M |
| CSAIL 2017-C82017 • CSAIL | $658.4M | $199.3M4 loans | $37.3M1 loans | N/A0 loans | N/A0 loans | -$44.5M |
| UBSCM 2018-C92018 • UBS | $748.8M | $190.1M5 loans | $190.1M5 loans | N/A0 loans | N/A0 loans | -$187.1M |
| BMARK 2018-B12018 • BMARK | $823.8M | $188.6M7 loans | $115.5M3 loans | N/A0 loans | $8.9M1 loans | -$1.4B |
| WFCM 2017-C392017 • WF | $991.6M | $179.8M6 loans | N/A0 loans | N/A0 loans | $28M1 loans | -$272.8M |
| BBCMS 2023-C192023 • BBCMS | $847.1M | $165M10 loans | $108.3M6 loans | N/A0 loans | N/A0 loans | -$2.2M |
| JPMCC 2017-JP52017 • JPM | $758M | $164.7M4 loans | $126.7M3 loans | N/A0 loans | $38M1 loans | -$129.6M |
| BMARK 2019-B142019 • BMARK | $1.2B | $158.2M5 loans | $25.3M2 loans | $39M1 loans | $94M2 loans | -$618M |
| BBCMS 2020-C72020 • BBCMS | $782M | $155.3M6 loans | $66.7M4 loans | $110M3 loans | N/A0 loans | -$804.2M |
| BMARK 2018-B62018 • BMARK | $1B | $144.2M8 loans | $31M2 loans | $17.5M1 loans | $83.6M4 loans | -$101.6M |
| CGCMT 2017-P72017 • CGCMT | $813.2M | $141.5M7 loans | $49.8M3 loans | N/A0 loans | N/A0 loans | -$460.1M |
| JPMCC 2017-JP72017 • JPM | $603.6M | $138.5M4 loans | $18.5M1 loans | N/A0 loans | N/A0 loans | -$160.9M |
| CF 2019-CF12019 • CF | $735.8M | $136M2 loans | N/A0 loans | $40M1 loans | $96M1 loans | -$110.7M |
| BMARK 2019-B122019 • BMARK | $1.1B | $135.3M5 loans | $17.2M1 loans | $30M1 loans | $65M1 loans | -$258.5M |
| BMARK 2019-B102019 • BMARK | $973.1M | $134.3M4 loans | $81.9M3 loans | N/A0 loans | N/A0 loans | -$35.6M |
| GSMS 2017-GS82017 • GSMS | $910M | $133.8M2 loans | $33.8M1 loans | N/A0 loans | N/A0 loans | -$1.4B |
| COMM 2018-COR32018 • COMM | $975M | $133.7M3 loans | $143.2M4 loans | N/A0 loans | N/A0 loans | -$360.4M |
| MSBAM 2017-C332017 • MSBAM | $548.1M | $131.6M4 loans | $59.3M2 loans | $38M1 loans | N/A0 loans | -$12.6M |
| JPMDB 2017-C72017 • JPM | $921.9M | $127.1M3 loans | $25.5M1 loans | N/A0 loans | N/A0 loans | -$510.8M |
| GSMS 2018-GS92018 • GSMS | $824.4M | $122.4M3 loans | $87.4M2 loans | N/A0 loans | N/A0 loans | -$1.3B |
| CSAIL 2017-CX92017 • CSAIL | $493.8M | $120.9M3 loans | $35.9M1 loans | N/A0 loans | $40M1 loans | -$185.3M |
| COMM 2019-GC442019 • COMM | $900.4M | $120.5M3 loans | N/A0 loans | N/A0 loans | $50M1 loans | -$502.5M |
| CGCMT 2017-P82017 • CGCMT | $1B | $119.9M4 loans | $36.3M1 loans | N/A0 loans | $41.8M1 loans | -$94.9M |
Distress Signal Definitions
Special Servicing
When a loan fails to meet its payment obligations, it may be transferred to a special servicer who works with the borrower to resolve the default. This is a key indicator of financial distress.
Delinquency
Loans that are past due on their scheduled payments. Delinquent loans represent immediate cash flow issues and increased default risk.
Performing Balloon Maturity
Loans that are current on payments but have a balloon payment (large final payment) coming due. While currently performing, these loans face refinancing risk at maturity.
Non-Performing Balloon Maturity
Loans with balloon payments that are already in default or past due. These represent the highest risk as they combine both payment issues and refinancing challenges.
Valuation Changes
Updates to property valuations that reflect current market conditions. Declining valuations can signal deteriorating collateral quality and reduced recovery prospects.
Why Distress Signals Matter
Distress signals provide critical insights into the health of CMBS deals and underlying collateral performance:
- Early warning detection - Identify deals with deteriorating performance before defaults
- Risk assessment - Quantify exposure to distressed assets across portfolios
- Market sentiment - Understand broader trends in commercial real estate
- Investment decisions - Inform allocation and risk management strategies
Key Distress Indicators
🏦 Special Servicing
When loans transfer to special servicing, it indicates the borrower is experiencing financial difficulties. We track:
- Balance in special servicing
- Number of loans transferred
💳 Delinquency Patterns
Delinquent payments signal immediate cash flow issues. We analyze:
- Total delinquent balance
- Number of delinquent loans
- Payment history trends
🎈 Balloon Maturity Exposure
Balloon payments can create refinancing risk. We track:
- Performing balloon balance
- Non-performing balloon balance
- Maturity concentration risk
📊 Valuation Changes
Declining property values can signal underlying issues. We analyze:
- Valuation change amounts
- Frequency of valuation updates
- Correlation with other distress signals
Real Use Cases
🧠 For Portfolio Managers
Use distress signals to identify at-risk exposures in your CMBS holdings. Compare your portfolio's distress metrics against market averages and adjust allocations accordingly.
📡 For Risk Analysts
Track distress trends across different property types, geographies, and vintages. Build early warning systems to flag deteriorating deals before they impact performance.
🤖 For AI Systems
Feed distress signal data into predictive models to forecast potential defaults and estimate recovery rates. Enable intelligent agents to provide risk assessments and recommendations.
What We Track
Our distress analysis covers:
- Special Servicing Metrics - Balance, loan count
- Delinquency Patterns - Payment history, default risk
- Balloon Maturity Risk - Performing and non-performing exposure
- Valuation Trends - Change amounts, updates, market impact
- Geographic Analysis - Regional distress concentrations
- Property Type Exposure - Sector-specific risk factors
Get Started
Explore the distress metrics and deal-level analysis below to understand current CMBS market conditions and identify potential risk exposures in your portfolio.