CMBS Distress Signals

CMBS Distress Signals

Monitor and analyze distress signals across CMBS deals to identify potential credit concerns and assess portfolio risk exposure.

At Dealcharts.org, we track multiple indicators of distress in CMBS deals including special servicing activity, delinquency patterns, balloon maturity exposure, and valuation changes. This comprehensive view helps investors and analysts identify early warning signs and assess portfolio risk.

Distress Signal Definitions

Special Servicing

When a loan fails to meet its payment obligations, it may be transferred to a special servicer who works with the borrower to resolve the default. This is a key indicator of financial distress.

Delinquency

Loans that are past due on their scheduled payments. Delinquent loans represent immediate cash flow issues and increased default risk.

Performing Balloon Maturity

Loans that are current on payments but have a balloon payment (large final payment) coming due. While currently performing, these loans face refinancing risk at maturity.

Non-Performing Balloon Maturity

Loans with balloon payments that are already in default or past due. These represent the highest risk as they combine both payment issues and refinancing challenges.

Valuation Changes

Updates to property valuations that reflect current market conditions. Declining valuations can signal deteriorating collateral quality and reduced recovery prospects.

Why Distress Signals Matter

Distress signals provide critical insights into the health of CMBS deals and underlying collateral performance:

• Early warning detection - Identify deals with deteriorating performance before defaults
• Risk assessment - Quantify exposure to distressed assets across portfolios
• Market sentiment - Understand broader trends in commercial real estate
• Investment decisions - Inform allocation and risk management strategies

Key Distress Indicators

🏦 Special Servicing

When loans transfer to special servicing, it indicates the borrower is experiencing financial difficulties. We track:

• Balance in special servicing
• Number of loans transferred

💳 Delinquency Patterns

Delinquent payments signal immediate cash flow issues. We analyze:

• Total delinquent balance
• Number of delinquent loans
• Payment history trends

🎈 Balloon Maturity Exposure

Balloon payments can create refinancing risk. We track:

• Performing balloon balance
• Non-performing balloon balance
• Maturity concentration risk

📊 Valuation Changes

Declining property values can signal underlying issues. We analyze:

• Valuation change amounts
• Frequency of valuation updates
• Correlation with other distress signals

Real Use Cases

🧠 For Portfolio Managers

Use distress signals to identify at-risk exposures in your CMBS holdings. Compare your portfolio's distress metrics against market averages and adjust allocations accordingly.

📡 For Risk Analysts

Track distress trends across different property types, geographies, and vintages. Build early warning systems to flag deteriorating deals before they impact performance.

🤖 For AI Systems

Feed distress signal data into predictive models to forecast potential defaults and estimate recovery rates. Enable intelligent agents to provide risk assessments and recommendations.

What We Track

Our distress analysis covers:

• Special Servicing Metrics - Balance, loan count
• Delinquency Patterns - Payment history, default risk
• Balloon Maturity Risk - Performing and non-performing exposure
• Valuation Trends - Change amounts, updates, market impact
• Geographic Analysis - Regional distress concentrations
• Property Type Exposure - Sector-specific risk factors

Get Started

Explore the distress metrics and deal-level analysis below to understand current CMBS market conditions and identify potential risk exposures in your portfolio.